In this graph I have gathered data from an external source, which shows, the active present percentage change in usage of the population over one year, (orange) and the active percentage of Internet users that use a specific Network, (Blue).
After analysis I’d like to view the Orange areas of the graph as the potential future of Social Media and the blue as the present. Due to the orange representing the growth of the network, it would make logical sense that the blue will follow suit in the direction of the orange over a given time-period.
This theory, although true for social networks with (relative to other Network’s) low blue bars, you can’t forget that there will be a point at which the Social Network will peak. Facebook is getting to the point where if you have any remote interest in Social Networking you have an account, hence the low orange bar. To put it into perspective over 40% of every person who uses the Internet has an account and is active (see graph below) in using the network, this accounts for 62% of Facebook’s registered users so the percentage of people that use the Internet is even higher. Facebook having a low orange bar is not to say Facebook has no future, it is just saying not as many people are registering for accounts as other networks. So as the growth of blue slows down the size of the orange bar decreases.
Obviously if the Orange bar is on the negative side of the graph the growth of the network is declining and the Social Network is dying. In the case of Mixi (Japanese Social Network) and Copains (French Social Network), which have both been driven through the ground by Facebook, the networks have since diminished.
What can also be established from the graph is that the number of people using other networks is decreasing rapidly as well. This is not good news for any up and coming social networks as people are developing the attitude that they have a significant number of networks and feel comfortable where they are. This might mean they are not willing to open their mind to anything new.
It is clear to see that Tumblr and Pinterest are dominating network growth. These are going to be the networks to watch in the coming years. Are we getting more visual? Tumblr and Pinterest are predominantly videography or photography based networks. Maybe if more networks are going to be released and successful in the coming years, these are the aspects the networks may entail.
I decided to analyse these statistics because it is a good indicator of which Social Networks people may be getting bored of. The reason I say this is because, when a network first goes live, everybody registers for an account; everybody is active. As time goes on the activity level will drop but it is an important factor Social Networks need to keep an eye on. This is due to the way people act on the whole with social media, the common analogy of dominos is useful; if one person stops using a network, their friend sees no point, then there friendship group dies off the network and so on. Until before you know it most of your users have packed up and left.
What is surprising to me is that with the considerable monopoly Facebook had for such a long period of time, how many users are inactive at this point. I would have believed, from personal experience and from reading statistics on the network, that more people would still be active. People having more than one account will play a large factor in this, but considering the other social networks relative success in active users could this be the first piece of evidence of Facebook’s demise?
Reference: Statistics extracted from www.jeffbullas.com